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Florida, Indiana out of NCAA tournament

Selection Sunday is one month away. 

That means it’s time for bubble teams to kick it into high gear over the next few weeks and then in always-pivotal conference tournaments. 

One team that definitely didn’t think it’d be in the mix hitting the panic button was Baylor. The Bears (16-9, 7-5; 32 NET) were surprisingly tied atop the Big 12 standings alongside Kansas State two weeks ago. But remember: The selection committee doesn’t care about league standings and see’s Baylor’s overall body of work that features résumé-staining losses to Wichita State, Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin to package with a non-conference strength of schedule of 195. 

Baylor is a seemingly comfortable No. 8 seed and joins the Big 12’s bubble teams that include three currently projected No. 10 seeds – Texas, TCU, and Oklahoma. The Bears have beaten the latter two and host Texas on Feb. 27. The NET-leading Big 12 is a double-edged sword in this case: Beating No. 3 seed Kansas (March 9), No. 4 seed Iowa State (Feb. 19) and Kansas State (March 2) pushes Baylor in the safety zone. Lose all those and then stumble against bottom-feeders West Virginia (Feb. 23) or Oklahoma State (March 6), and there will be sweating on Selection Sunday. 

BRACKETOLOGY: Which No. 2s steal 1-seed from Gonzaga?

WINNERS AND LOSERS: Big 12 foes shake up the top of the bracket, bubble

One fringe team that’s still on the outside is Florida (14-11, 6-6 SEC; 41 NET). The Gators beat fellow bubble team Alabama this weekend to bolster their credentials but this résumé is still lacking quality wins with only two Quadrant 1 (top-30 home, top-75 road) victories. Coach Michael White’s team will get several chances to bulk that up starting Wednesday at LSU and closing the regular season out with a road test at Kentucky (March 9). 

Indiana was in last week, but its road loss to Minnesota on Saturday — the Hoosiers’ 10th defeat in 11 games — pushes this team out of the field. There’s still a lot to like on this profile with four Q1 wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville and Butler. But the Hoosiers (13-12, 4-10 Big Ten; 51 NET) have to win more games to stay in consideration. 

Another team to fall out in the latest bracket projection is UNC-Greensboro (22-5, 11-3 Southern; 53 NET), which held a rare at-large bid in weeks’ prior due to an overall strong résumé and then-top-50 NET score. But while there are no bad losses on the Spartans’ portfolio, Saturday’s 30 point loss to Southern Conference leader (and projected No. 8 seed) Wofford removed this team’s last big chance in the regular season to add some much-needed eye candy. 

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN

Results/records shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data, compiled by bracketologist Shelby Mast, is updated through games of Feb. 18.

Temple (In for now, No. 11 seed)

Profile: 19-7 (9-4) 56 NET, 58 SoS, 205 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Houston, Davidson, South Florida (twice), Memphis, Missouri
  • The Bad: Loss to Penn

UCF (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

Profile: 18-5 (8-3) 39 NET, 85 SoS, 145 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Alabama, Temple, Connecticut, South Florida, Memphis
  • The Bad: Loss to Florida Atlantic

North Carolina State (In for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

Profile: 18-8 (6-7) 31 NET, 210 SoS, 352 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn, Clemson, Syracuse, Penn State
  • The Bad: Loss to Wake Forest

Clemson (Out for now)

Profile: 15-10 (5-7) 42 NET, 43 SoS, 136 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Virginia Tech, Lipscomb
  • The Bad: No bad losses

St. John’s (In for now, No. 9 seed)

Profile: 19-7 (7-6) 49 NET, 53 SoS, 203 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Marquette (twice), Villanova, VCU, Creighton (twice), Georgetown, Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, DePaul

Seton Hall  (In for now, No. 11 seed)

Profile: 16-9 (7-6) 61 NET, 38 SoS, 62 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Maryland, St. John’s, Creighton (twice), Butler
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Saint Louis

Butler (in for now, No. 12 seed — play-in)

Profile: 15-11 (6-7) 54 NET, 26 SoS, 69 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Georgetown, St. John’s, Ole Miss, Creighton, Seton Hall
  • The Bad: Losses to DePaul, Saint Louis

Georgetown (Out for now)

Profile: 15-10 (5-7) 79 NET, 84 SoS, 236 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. St. John’s, Butler, Liberty, Providence
  • The Bad: Losses to SMU, Loyola Marymount

Ohio State (In for now, No. 9 seed)

Profile: 16-9 (6-8) 44 NET, 47 SoS, 130 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Cincinnati, Nebraska, Creighton, Minnesota, Indiana
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers, Illinois

Minnesota (In for now, No. 11 seed)

Profile: 17-9 (7-8) 58 NET, 61 SoS, 188 NonCon So

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Nebraska, Indiana
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Boston College

Indiana (Out for now)

Profile: 13-12 (4-10) 51 NET, 36 SoS, 126 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Michigan State, Louisville, Marquette, Butler, Penn State
  • The Bad: Loss to Rutgers

Nebraska (Out for now)

Profile: 15-11 (5-10) 38 NET, 78 SoS, 209 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Clemson, Indiana, Seton Hall, Creighton, Minnesota 
  • The Bad: Losses to Illinois, Rutgers

Baylor (In for now, No. 8 seed)

Profile: 16-9 (7-5) 32 NET, 44 SoS, 195 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma (twice), TCU, Alabama, Oregon, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Wichita State, Texas Southern, Stephen F. Austin

TCU (In for now, No. 10 seed)

Profile: 17-8 (5-7) 34 NET, 30 SoS, 94 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, Florida
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Texas (In for now, No. 10 seed)

Profile: 15-11 (7-6) 35 NET, 13 SoS, 15 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma 
  • The Bad: Losses to Providence, Radford, Georgia

Oklahoma (In for now, No. 10 seed)

Profile: 16-10 (4-9) 41 NET, 15 SoS, 22 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Wofford, Florida, TCU (twice), Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss to West Virginia

Arizona State (In for now, No. 11 seed)

Profile: 17-8 (8-5) 75 NET, 68 SoS, 61 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, Washington, Mississippi State, Utah State, Arizona, Oregon
  • The Bad: Losses to Southern California, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Utah, Princeton, Washington State

Ole Miss (In for now, No. 8 seed)

Profile: 18-7 (8-4) 33 NET, 79 SoS, 167 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Auburn (twice), Mississippi State, Baylor, Arkansas
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Auburn (In for now, No. 9 seed)

Profile: 17-8 (6-6) 24 NET, 35 SoS, 46 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Washington, Florida, Alabama, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Alabama (In for now, No. 12 seed — Play-in)

Profile: 15-10 (6-6) 45 NET, 19 SoS, 56 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Liberty, Murray State, Arizona
  • The Bad: Losses to Northeastern, Texas A&M, Georgia State

Florida (Out for now)

Profile: 14-11 (6-6) 40 NET, 39 SoS, 122 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Butler, Alabama
  • The Bad: Loss to South Carolina

Arkansas (Out for now)

Profile: 14-11 (5-7) 66 NET, 42 SoS, 81 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. LSU, Indiana
  • The Bad: Losses to South Carolina, Georgia Tech, Western Kentucky

Wofford (In for now, No. 8 seed — automatic qualifier Southern)

Profile: 23-4 (15-0) 29 NET, 154 SoS, 133 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Greensboro (twice), East Tennessee State (twice), Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

VCU (In for now, No. 10 seed — automatic qualifier Atlantic 10)

Profile: 19-6 (10-2) 43 NET, 32 SoS, 2 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Texas, Temple, Hofstra, Dayton
  • The Bad: Loss to Charleston

Lipscomb (In for now, No. 10 seed — automatic qualifier Atlantic Sun)

Profile: 21-5 (12-1) 37 NET, 220 SoS, 57 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. TCU, Liberty, Vermont
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Belmont (In for now, No. 12 seed — at large)

Profile: 21-4 (12-2) 63 NET, 211 SoS, 77 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Lipscomb (twice), UCLA, Murray State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Jacksonville State (twice), Green Bay

Murray State (In for now, No. 12 seed Ohio Valley automatic qualifier)

Profile: 21-4 (12-2) 64 NET, 268 SoS 222 NonCon Sos

  • The Good: No good wins
  • The Bad: Loss to Jacksonville State

UNC-Greensboro (Out for now)

Profile: 22-5 (11-3) 53 NET, 128 SoS, 166 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. East Tennessee State, Furman
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Furman (Out for now)

Profile: 22-5 (11-4) 46 NET, 235 SoS 288 NonCon Sos

  • The Good: Wins over Villanova, UNCG, East Tennessee State
  • The Bad: Loss to Samford

Davidson (Out for now)

Profile: 19-6 (10-2) 69 NET, 130 SoS, 128 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. VCU
  • The Bad: Losses to Saint Joseph’s, Wake Forest, Massachusetts

Saint Mary’s (Out for now)

Profile: 17-10 (8-4) 47 NET, 37 SoS, 74 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. New Mexico State, San Francisco
  • The Bad: Losses to Western Kentucky, UC-Irvine, Harvard, Pepperdine

Utah State (Out for now)

Profile: 20-6 (10-3) 36 NET, 127 SoS, 28 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Saint Mary’s, Fresno State
  • The Bad: Loss to San Diego State

***

NCAA tourney Language Explainer:

  • Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
  • Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
  • Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
  • Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET

Note: Mostly all statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NCAA’s new NET rankings are also considered; that was rolled out at the beginning of 2018-19

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his sixth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past five March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.




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